Data from Folkhälsomyndigheten (FHM), and their daily released Excel sheet with statistics. All time series are processed with a moving average filter over one week to eliminate weekly variations in reporting.

We have fitted a SIR model to the mortality data. The figure below shows the result from a simple SIR model and one SIR model which have a change point where the spread rate is allowed to change. The first plot shows the fitted mortality data, the second one the SIR states and the last one summarises a number of estimated parameters.